OK ... I'll be coming back for my normal TDA column in the next day or so. But I wanted to update where East Clinton's playoff points sit right now, and where they could go:
Currently, EC has 23 Level 1 points (points for the teams you have beaten). They currently have 66 level 2 points (Level 1 points for the teams you have beaten). That is good for an average of 9.5417. East Clinton's divisor is 99, because Williamsburg plays a game against a non-OHSAA school. So the breakdown of their average is:
Level 1 AVG: 2.8750
Level 2 AVG: 6.6667
Total: 9.5417
If East Clinton runs the table (which I think they will), they'll have 31.5 Level 1 points. Now we have to figure out the Level 2 points. Here is the projections used to come up with EC's level 2 points:
Week 9: Williamsburg - BYE (non-OHSAA), Goshen def. Bethel-Tate (if Bethel wins it will hurt EC's projected AVG), Blanchester def. CNE (doesn't matter - both 4.5 point schools), New Richmond def. Western Brown (this one is key - would hurt EC's average if WBr wins), Clark Montessori loses to Lehman Catholic.
Week 10: CNE beats Williamsburg (if WMB wins, EC would gain 0.5 level 2 points), Goshen def. West Carrollton, New Richmond beats Greenville, Blanchester def. Batavia (doesn't matter, both 4.5 point schools).
Obviously, as you can see, it is CRITICAL for Goshen and New Richmond to win out to help East Clinton. Since both are playing teams that EC didn't beat (or didn't play), losses by either team down the stretch would hurt the final average.
If things go as listed above, here is how EC's final average will shake out:
Level 1 Points: 31.5000
Level 2 Points: 116.0000
Level 1 AVG: 3.1500
Level 2 AVG: 11.7172
Final AVG: 14.8672
If Western Brown beats New Richmond, here is how it would shake out:
Level 1 Points: 31.5000
Level 2 Points: 110.5000
Level 1 AVG: 3.1500
Level 2 AVG: 11.1616
Final AVG: 14.3116
So you see how one game can make a huge difference in the final average for East Clinton. We'll have a much better idea of how they will finish after the week 9 games. I think 14.8672 could be enough to sneak them into the playoffs - but it will be close. 14.3116 could leave them just short. Next week I'll project the teams around EC in the standings to give you an idea who to root for during the final week of the season if you are an EC fan.
Currently, EC has 23 Level 1 points (points for the teams you have beaten). They currently have 66 level 2 points (Level 1 points for the teams you have beaten). That is good for an average of 9.5417. East Clinton's divisor is 99, because Williamsburg plays a game against a non-OHSAA school. So the breakdown of their average is:
Level 1 AVG: 2.8750
Level 2 AVG: 6.6667
Total: 9.5417
If East Clinton runs the table (which I think they will), they'll have 31.5 Level 1 points. Now we have to figure out the Level 2 points. Here is the projections used to come up with EC's level 2 points:
Week 9: Williamsburg - BYE (non-OHSAA), Goshen def. Bethel-Tate (if Bethel wins it will hurt EC's projected AVG), Blanchester def. CNE (doesn't matter - both 4.5 point schools), New Richmond def. Western Brown (this one is key - would hurt EC's average if WBr wins), Clark Montessori loses to Lehman Catholic.
Week 10: CNE beats Williamsburg (if WMB wins, EC would gain 0.5 level 2 points), Goshen def. West Carrollton, New Richmond beats Greenville, Blanchester def. Batavia (doesn't matter, both 4.5 point schools).
Obviously, as you can see, it is CRITICAL for Goshen and New Richmond to win out to help East Clinton. Since both are playing teams that EC didn't beat (or didn't play), losses by either team down the stretch would hurt the final average.
If things go as listed above, here is how EC's final average will shake out:
Level 1 Points: 31.5000
Level 2 Points: 116.0000
Level 1 AVG: 3.1500
Level 2 AVG: 11.7172
Final AVG: 14.8672
If Western Brown beats New Richmond, here is how it would shake out:
Level 1 Points: 31.5000
Level 2 Points: 110.5000
Level 1 AVG: 3.1500
Level 2 AVG: 11.1616
Final AVG: 14.3116
So you see how one game can make a huge difference in the final average for East Clinton. We'll have a much better idea of how they will finish after the week 9 games. I think 14.8672 could be enough to sneak them into the playoffs - but it will be close. 14.3116 could leave them just short. Next week I'll project the teams around EC in the standings to give you an idea who to root for during the final week of the season if you are an EC fan.
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