With the Reds about a million games out of first and playing lousy baseball, it has left fans asking for trades and firings. Trade Dunn and Griffey. Fire Narron and Krivsky and the hot dog vendor in the upper deck. Whatever it takes to get a winning team. Here's the problems with these plans ... it is likely none of them will lead to winning baseball anytime soon. Here are some often-proposed fixes for the Reds and their inherent problems:
1. Trade Adam Dunn. He strikes out too much. Forget the fact he'll likely average 40 home runs and 100 RBIs for the rest of his career. Fans would much rather see him do what, exactly? So if half of his 200 strikeouts were ground balls, sure he might have another 20 hits. Isn't it also safe to assume he'd likely have another 20-30 ground-ball double plays? That's what we want, more two-outs than one outs. That makes all kinds of sense.
The facts are as follows: Very few players in baseball hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs. Yeah, he plays defense like Helen Keller sometimes. So you move him to first. I'm sure he wouldn't mind it so much and I'm sure with serious work it could work out. If you do trade him, who will recover that lost offense? Juan Castro? Maybe Joey Votto in a few years, but why not have them both if you can? The other problem with trading Dunn is it voids the option year in his contract, making him a free agent. So a team that trades for him will know they're likely only getting a rent-a-player for the rest of the season. In a situation like that the Reds will never get what they want in return.
2. Fire Jerry Narron. OK ... I happen to agree with this one, but here is what we all must consider: Who will take over for Narron? Joe Girardi? He just turned down Baltimore ... a team with much more spending power than the Reds. The Reds would likely promote Bucky Dent ... and he's no better than Narron. Unless you can get a good manager to take over for Narron, you might as well let the lame duck finish the season. My fear is they fire Narron, promote Dent, the team goes .500 the rest of the way and Dent gets a 10-year extension. Either you hire someone strictly as interm the rest of the way or let Narron finish the season.
3. Trade [insert veteran player here] for pitching prospects. Two problems with this plan: One, you are assuming that a team would want any of the Reds veteran players. Fans are quickly ready to trade someone off (meaning the fans don't want him in town) but then quickly assume another team would love to have him. Again ... no logic in this argument. Two, you are trading for prospects. Not players that are major-league ready now ... but maybe in a year or two. Everyone currently pictures "Homer Bailey" when they hear about pitching prospects and hope that a couple more could build an awesome rotation. Of course, what some fans forget is that for every "Homer Bailey", there is a "CJ Nitkowski". Remember him? A can't miss pitching prospect that barely pitched at all for the Reds and pitched a bit more for the recently abysmal Tigers, before they got good again. Fans want the Reds to trade a known commodity for an unknown one. While I admit that a small-market team must do this to rebuild from time to time, you have to be real careful about doing as much homework on the unknown commodity as you can as to minimize risk. Remember ... if someone else is wanting to get rid of this player, there must be a reason, right?
So, you're asking who I would keep on the current roster? Well, here is my best guess:
Position players:
1B: Scott Hatteberg (unless a great deal comes along and you can bring up Votto in the second half of the season).
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Alex Gonzalez
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
LF: Adam Dunn (I still don't trade him)
CF: Josh Hamilton, Norris Hopper
RF: Ken Griffey Jr (I keep him here until he wants out or until he retires)
C: David Ross (the other two are throw aways and I only keep Ross for his defense)
Pitching:
Starting Pitcher: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo (I still think he's pitching hurt), Kyle Lohse, Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey
Relief Pitchers: Eddie Guardado (he'll retire soon), David Weathers (MVP of the first half of the season?), Jon Coutlangus, Marcus McBeth, Brad Salmon, Jared Burton (have to, rule 5), Todd Coffey (not ready to give up on him yet ... but soon).
This leaves 21 on my 25 man roster. Joey Votto should come up. After that it's take your pick. Starter Phil Dumatrait is a name tossed about a bunch from Louisville. I'd take a couple more relievers from Louisville or Chattanooga go with them, win or lose. The only way you "blow up the team" is if you can get can't miss prospects (mostly pitching) in return. Otherwise, you wait for your younger players to mature and take what you get. That is the life of a small-market franchise.
1. Trade Adam Dunn. He strikes out too much. Forget the fact he'll likely average 40 home runs and 100 RBIs for the rest of his career. Fans would much rather see him do what, exactly? So if half of his 200 strikeouts were ground balls, sure he might have another 20 hits. Isn't it also safe to assume he'd likely have another 20-30 ground-ball double plays? That's what we want, more two-outs than one outs. That makes all kinds of sense.
The facts are as follows: Very few players in baseball hit 40 HRs and 100 RBIs. Yeah, he plays defense like Helen Keller sometimes. So you move him to first. I'm sure he wouldn't mind it so much and I'm sure with serious work it could work out. If you do trade him, who will recover that lost offense? Juan Castro? Maybe Joey Votto in a few years, but why not have them both if you can? The other problem with trading Dunn is it voids the option year in his contract, making him a free agent. So a team that trades for him will know they're likely only getting a rent-a-player for the rest of the season. In a situation like that the Reds will never get what they want in return.
2. Fire Jerry Narron. OK ... I happen to agree with this one, but here is what we all must consider: Who will take over for Narron? Joe Girardi? He just turned down Baltimore ... a team with much more spending power than the Reds. The Reds would likely promote Bucky Dent ... and he's no better than Narron. Unless you can get a good manager to take over for Narron, you might as well let the lame duck finish the season. My fear is they fire Narron, promote Dent, the team goes .500 the rest of the way and Dent gets a 10-year extension. Either you hire someone strictly as interm the rest of the way or let Narron finish the season.
3. Trade [insert veteran player here] for pitching prospects. Two problems with this plan: One, you are assuming that a team would want any of the Reds veteran players. Fans are quickly ready to trade someone off (meaning the fans don't want him in town) but then quickly assume another team would love to have him. Again ... no logic in this argument. Two, you are trading for prospects. Not players that are major-league ready now ... but maybe in a year or two. Everyone currently pictures "Homer Bailey" when they hear about pitching prospects and hope that a couple more could build an awesome rotation. Of course, what some fans forget is that for every "Homer Bailey", there is a "CJ Nitkowski". Remember him? A can't miss pitching prospect that barely pitched at all for the Reds and pitched a bit more for the recently abysmal Tigers, before they got good again. Fans want the Reds to trade a known commodity for an unknown one. While I admit that a small-market team must do this to rebuild from time to time, you have to be real careful about doing as much homework on the unknown commodity as you can as to minimize risk. Remember ... if someone else is wanting to get rid of this player, there must be a reason, right?
So, you're asking who I would keep on the current roster? Well, here is my best guess:
Position players:
1B: Scott Hatteberg (unless a great deal comes along and you can bring up Votto in the second half of the season).
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Alex Gonzalez
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
LF: Adam Dunn (I still don't trade him)
CF: Josh Hamilton, Norris Hopper
RF: Ken Griffey Jr (I keep him here until he wants out or until he retires)
C: David Ross (the other two are throw aways and I only keep Ross for his defense)
Pitching:
Starting Pitcher: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo (I still think he's pitching hurt), Kyle Lohse, Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey
Relief Pitchers: Eddie Guardado (he'll retire soon), David Weathers (MVP of the first half of the season?), Jon Coutlangus, Marcus McBeth, Brad Salmon, Jared Burton (have to, rule 5), Todd Coffey (not ready to give up on him yet ... but soon).
This leaves 21 on my 25 man roster. Joey Votto should come up. After that it's take your pick. Starter Phil Dumatrait is a name tossed about a bunch from Louisville. I'd take a couple more relievers from Louisville or Chattanooga go with them, win or lose. The only way you "blow up the team" is if you can get can't miss prospects (mostly pitching) in return. Otherwise, you wait for your younger players to mature and take what you get. That is the life of a small-market franchise.
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